Here are my notes from the 2009 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference, October 11-13, 2009 in Denver, Colorado. Length: 71 pages.

View the Web version below the fold, or download the PDF.

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For last week’s Energy and Capital, I offered my first report of a series from the 2009 ASPO-USA peak oil conference, updating the numbers on supply, demand, peak and the current outlook for oil and gas.

[Part 1 of a series of reports from the 2009 ASPO Peak Oil Conference.]

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For my Energy and Capital article this week, I draw connections between Mexico’s violent drug cartels, the declining state of the Mexican economy and the outlook for Mexican oil and gas imports to the U.S.
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For my Energy and Capital article this week, I argue that oil prices in the $40s are creating a time bomb under the world economy which will explode around 2012 and send prices skyrocketing.
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Catching up the blog with my Energy and Capital article from last week, which ran while I was away for Christmas. In it, I survey some of the reasons why I think oil is badly mispriced right now.
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Here are my notes from the 2008 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference, September 21-23, 2008 in Sacramento, California. Length: 57 pages.
View the Web version below the fold, or download the PDF.
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Reposting a new interview with my co-author Brian Hicks about our book, by journalist Marc Kramer of The Bulletin.
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Folks,
For those who are interested, my book was reviewed by Robert Rapier on The Oil Drum today, and a fairly interesting discussion ensued.

For this week’s Energy and Capital column, I finally got around to a topic I have long wanted to address: the impending net export crisis. It’s an important one, because it will hit us sooner and harder than the global production peak of oil.

–C
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Folks,

Last week I had the privilege of attending the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) Third Annal Oil Conference in Houston, where I saw presentations from some of the best and brightest in the industry. I am posting my notes (47 pages) here for the benefit of others. I hope you find them useful.
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Folks,

This longish article was broken into two parts for Energy and Capital (here and here), but I have reprinted it whole here for convenience.

In it, I discuss the paradox that many highly-anticipated oil and gas projects around the world are being delayed or cancelled due to the high cost of oil…when the high cost of oil was supposed to make them economical.

I think this is an important dynamic to be aware of as we cross into post-oil peak terrority. Our expectations for future production may not be fulfilled.

–C (more…)

Folks,

Here’s my latest piece, originally published at Energy and Capital. It explores some of the salient reasons why the Bush administration must be panicking over its failed policies on energy, climate change, and the Iraq war.

As always, I welcome your feedback.

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Folks,
Here’s my latest, about my trip last weekend to some Plan B property up north, including musings on the news that Mexico’s Cantarell field has gone into sharp decline.

It was originally published at Wealth Daily.
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Folks,
Here’s my latest, going out to the newsletters & other peak oil sites today. It’s my investigation into the “elephant”-sized oil find in the Gulf of Mexico that was announced in September. As you might expect, I found that the reality didn’t quite measure up to the hype.

–C
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Folks,

You may recall the name of Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior expert to the Iranian national oil company, National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), who was featured in the film The End of Suburbia. (And if you haven’t seen it, you must!)

A man with decades of experience, Dr. Bakhtiari has been one of the few top names in the oil business to acknowledge the urgency and seriousness of peak oil, and speak fairly candidly about it.

This article, from yesterday’s Daily Reckoning investment newsletter, has a nice roundup of his views and adds some fresh material from the author’s personal correspondence with Dr. Bakhtiari.

What prompted me to blog it was that Dr. Bakhtiari proposed a framework to describe the post-peak scenario between now and 2020, in four phases. Now, I have put the challenge, to various discussion groups about energy, for anyone to come up with a realistic 20-year scenario. So far, there have been some admirable attempts, but nothing I would consider too seriously. I even tried to get it submitted as a standard question to all speakers at the upcoming ASPO conference, but that get much response. Perhaps it’s too daunting. The problem is, there are just too many variables, and their interaction is too unpredictable.

While simple, I think Dr. Bakhtiari’s T1 – T4 framework could be a useful foundation. Food for thought, anyway. (more…)

Folks,

Whenever the corporate media want to present a “balanced” view of our oil and natural gas problem, there’s one guy they always call upon: Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, or CERA. He’s that benign face on the TV assuring you that we’ll have ample supplies for the foreseeable future, who projects that we’ll add another 40 million barrels per day (mbpd) of production capacity by 2015, magically matching our projected demand. He’s the one who’s opinion is supposed to be as valid as the host of petroleum geologists who make up the ASPO, who say that we’ll hit the peak around 90 mbpd in 2010, or 4 mbpd more than today, in four years.
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