For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review some recent data on the global recession, highlight the Guardian‘s recent interview with IEA’s Fatih Birol, consider some of the many energy projects being cancelled due to low oil and gas prices, and conclude that we’re setting ourselves up for a rebound in prices even more severe than I had previously thought.

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For my Energy and Capital article this week, I evaluate the EIA’s new oil outlook report, and conclude that there are at least five reasons why oil should go higher from here, unless we have very severe demand destruction in the developing world.
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In my article for Energy and Capital this week, I take a look at peak oil as a “black swan” event, and find an excellent opportunity to go long oil in the disconnect between the conventional wisdom of the market and the reality of energy supply.
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For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review a host of cancellations and delays of energy projects, and surmise that they are setting us up for an “air pocket” of oil supply within the next year or so.

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In my column for Energy and Capital this week, I tackle the new World Energy Outlook 2008 report from the IEA. It’s the bombshell I expected, and poses a $26 trillion dollar question with a (mostly) renewable energy answer.

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This month’s Vanity Fair has an excellent article on the market meltdown this year, which explains the history and the roles played by Fannie and Freddie, the Fed, hedge funds, and banks, and delves into the nature of fiat money, derivatives, and the other financial instruments that were the tools of our undoing. Fascinating article, very well done, highly recommended!

Wall Street Lays Another Egg

“Either way, Planet Finance has now returned to Planet Earth with a bang. The key figures of the Age of Leverage—the lax central bankers, the reckless investment bankers, the hubristic quants—are now feeling the full force of this planet’s gravity.”

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review Obama’s energy plan and try to separate the good ideas from the bad ones, ultimately finding in Obama’s win a guaranteed bull market in renewable energy, grid technology, and plug-in hybrids.

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My presentation in Minneapolis was very well received. I sense a growing appreciation out there for messages about resource overshoot and a future of diminishing energy supplies, and it’s giving me just a tiny bit of optimism.

Here’s a short article that I had to recommend to my list on the future of the markets and how we must be prepared to see both wild deflationary and hyperinflationary cycles. Excellent stuff.
Is Volatility Embedded in the System for a Generation?

On a related note, check out this chart of money supply. If you really grok what this means, it sorta tells the whole story right there:

Source: http://www.shadowstats.com/

Here’s another excellent article on the future of global trade and commodity prices: The world isn’t flat, it’s flattened

And finally, a bit of up-to-date political humor: Wassup 2008

Here’s hoping that we can wake up on November 5 to a new day in America, after a clean and uncontested election, with Obama at the helm. We have a lot of work to do…
–C

Here is Part 2 of my highlights from the 2008 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference, for Energy and Capital.
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