Well howdy friends!

It’s been far too long since I blogged. Did you miss me?

For the last many months, I have been hard at work on two books with my colleagues.

The first–Profit from the Peak with Brian Hicks–is now off to the printer, and will be available late April-early May. In it, I do a detailed study of peak oil theory, then move on to examining the peaking profiles of every major form of traditional energy, and conclude with a close look at the renewables market, including investing angles on all of the above. Check it out!

The second, Investing in Renewable Energy: Making Money on Green Chip Stocks with Jeff Siegel, will be out in the fall of this year (details forthcoming). As the title suggests, it is a detailed study of renewable energy and related investing opportunities.

After those intensive research labors, it’s a pleasure to return to writing regular updates for you all, and to take a more active role in writing for Angel Publishing’s newsletters.

My first piece is a monster, so they broke it into three parts. Here’s Part 1.

Drop me a line anytime, I love to hear from my longtime GRL readers!
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Folks,

News is just reaching the peak oil world that Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, former senior expert to the Iranian national oil company and a member of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre passed away last month at the age of 61. At this point I have found no information on the cause of death, or why it took three weeks for the news to reach us.

As my longtime readers know, he was one of my very favorite commentators, with a deep understanding of petroleum geology and a fine capacity for insight and the well-turned phrase. I shall greatly miss his contributions to the world dialogue on energy.

For those who aren’t aware of his work, here are a few things to explore.

Dr. Ali Bakhtiari’s Four Phases of Transition

Other GRL ariticles mentioning his comments

A “personal clarification” on his affiliation with the peak oil community at his Web site

A thread on TheOilDrum about it.

A short 2004 commentary on himself from here:

Dear Barbara,

First and foremost, thank you for your best wishes for the future of Iran and the very brave Iranian people. They deserve it.

Secondly, allow me to correct a misconception: I am not an eminent NIOC personality. The present company officials simply detest me (all of ‘them’) and are doing their utmost to have me quit (after 33 years of service, mainly not to pay me my final bonus and retirement); they certainly couldn’t care less about ‘peak oil’ — and this is as far I can go in a public forum. I leave it to your imagination to envision the rest…

1) I really don’t know how it came about that I am the only OPEC (and Middle Eastern) expert on
‘peak oil’. Certainly neither political leaders nor company officials ever guided or encouraged me unto this path (to the contrary). I kind of stumbled on Dr. Campbell’s work in 1995 (his days at PetroConsultants) and since … I have come all this long way (thanks mainly to the Internet). I still have to take from my personal yearly leave of absence and find a sponsor in order to be able attend international conferences. I finance part of my research out of “Letter from Tehran” income.

2) I really don’t know why I am so singular within OPEC (although I am not a very common individual, with a eventful past). Maybe the others are told to shut up and do so for their own good (and benefits). I will always speak out.

Well, I hope you were able to read between the lines, because although none of ‘them’ speaks or reads English, someone (among the Western puppet-masters) might call ‘them’ to attention. Now, the seemingly apparent contradictions might be beginning to make some sense.”

Folks,

I did another interview with the Invest Express radio talk show on the Business TalkRadio network today. We discussed oil prices, the recent high stock valuations in the solar sector, and the new “Tupi” offshore oil discovery in Brazil.

You can download the interview here.

–C

Folks,

You might want to tune in for a peak oil documentary on the History Channel next Tuesday night. This might be the first time that a real peak oil documentary has made it to a mainstream cable channel.

What Happens When Demand for Oil Outstrips Supply? … and There’s No ‘Plan B’

Source: PRNewswire PRESS RELEASE

Publication date: 2007-11-07

LOS ANGELES, Nov. 7 /PRNewswire/ — This week, the price of crude oil is trading at a shocking $96 a barrel. By year’s end, analysts predict petroleum will reach $100. And it’s not going to stop there. The world we’ve created runs on oil. But energy experts say the world is running out of oil. Much faster than previously thought. Demand will continue to outpace supplies, shortages are inevitable, and the price will only continue to rise dramatically — causing a ripple effect of disastrous economic, social and political consequences.

On Tuesday night, November 13th, (at 11 p.m. EST/PST – 10 p.m. CST), the History Channel will present Megadisasters: Oil Apocalypse, a documentary that Los Angeles-based filmmaker Martin Kent is calling “a wake up call,” about the world’s energy crisis. “We can no longer count on getting all the gasoline we need — and there’s no plan B.”

By “plan B,” Kent is referring to a coordinated system of alternative energies laid out in his film, that could replace our addiction and dependence on oil, if society mobilizes quickly to make it happen. It’s long been known that oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, that pollutes the environment, and now mankind is coming to realize that it is also most likely causing climate change. With China and India rapidly industrializing, creating an energy-hungry middle class, demand for oil will increase from the world’s current consumption of 84 million barrels a day, to 100 million barrels within the next 5 years. Unfortunately, while oil producers and refiners are scrambling to develop new techniques and sources of production, as yet there are no sure means to meet the growing demand.

Oil Apocalypse presents a terrifying set of scenarios. True to the laws of supply and demand, we are fast approaching the breaking point, when the imbalance could destabilize the economies and infrastructures of virtually every nation on the planet. The worst-case scenario, say experts in the film, is a worldwide depression, which could lead to a world war. Still, they say it’s not too late. But we have to act fast. Says Kent: “My hope is that upon seeing this film, everyone will be inspired to become an energy activist — instead of sitting back and hoping that the scientists and leaders will somehow pull everything together and fix this in the eleventh hour. The time to act is now.”

Energy experts appearing on camera in Oil Apocalypse include authors Richard Heinberg, Matthew Simmons, David Goodstein, Kenneth Deffeyes, Michael Economides and Christine Woodside; Oppenheimer energy analyst Fadel Gheit, PFC Energy chairman J. Robinson West, RAND Corp.’s James Bartis and U.S. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett. Megadisasters: Oil Apocalypse is a Creative Differences, Inc. production.

Folks,

Last week I had the privilege of attending the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) Third Annal Oil Conference in Houston, where I saw presentations from some of the best and brightest in the industry. I am posting my notes (47 pages) here for the benefit of others. I hope you find them useful.
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I did a brief (about 10 minute) call-in interview on the Invest Express show on Business Talk Radio last Friday. If you want to check it out, you can download it here.

–C

Folks,

I am finally re-posting my report on Burning Man to the blog. It was originally posted to Energy and Capital (part 1 and part 2), and is also featured on The Oil Drum. I hope you find some inspiration of your own in it!
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Now that this entire article has been published to Energy and Capital (Part 1 and Part 2) as well as TheOilDrum (Part 1 and Part 2), I am reposting it complete here. I welcome your feedback on it!

Cheers,

–Chris
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Folks,

I have done a fairly comprehensive high-level analysis of the tar sands, which is going out in two parts because it’s a bit long. You can see the first part here: Energy and Capital. I will post the whole thing to GRL when the second part goes out next week.

And with that, I’m off to Burning Man for the week. This year the theme is “Green Man,” with a focus on renewable energy, sustainability and all things green, so it should be interesting! Hopefully I’ll get some good material for future articles out of it.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend everybody!

–C

Folks,

I was interviewed by a CNBC journalist about the markets a week ago, but wasn’t able to find the article until today. I was quoted in it along with other investing pundits. Here is the article, “Commodities Stocks Still A Good Bet Despite Market Swoon.”
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Passing this along just for fun, because I’m both an energy geek and a Zappa fan. I haven’t ever come across this before, but it’s a short TV commercial that Zappa did for the Portland utility company. Gotta love it.

Download it here

–C

Folks,

In this week’s Energy and Capital article, I assess the recent correction in the stock market and what it means for renewable energy investors…with a nod to Blue Oyster Cult.

–C
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Folks,

In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I review some recent news reports from around the world, and the toll that high fuel prices are taking on the poorer parts of the world. One of my editors called it “pretty heavy” and another said “Scary article. Wait till the poor in America’s inner cities can no longer afford heat in the winter or A/C in the summer. I’m expecting riots.”

I hope it doesn’t come to that any time soon. But there is certainly cause for vigilance. What is happening in the Third World today will likely happen in the First World in a few short years.
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Folks,

I did another interview on Ken Brown’s show on Wednesday. We discussed recent action in the markets, the situation with oil and renewables, and the energy legislation that was recently passed in the House.

You can download it here (33 mins, 84 MB).

–C

Folks,

This recent opinion piece from the CEO of Shell deserves wider circulation, so I’m re-posting it here (boldface mine). Although van der Veer has been much more forthcoming about the reality of energy supplies than the rest of his Big Oil peers (when are the rest of the big oil majors going to own up to their own exaggerated reserve estimates, like Shell did?), this is remarkably straight-shootin’ stuff.

When the CEO of one of the world’s largest oil companies says that supply is going to have to struggle to keep up with demand, you can take it to the bank.
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For this week’s Energy and Capital column, I adapted the famous poem by Gil Scott-Heron to discuss renewable energy.
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Folks,

In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I finally get around to a detailed debunking of the “hydrogen economy.” Hydrogen has its uses, but I don’t believe it will ever be a significant part of the transportation infrastructure.

–C
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Folks,

Here’s another excellent story by journalist Jason Leopold on the gaming of the electricity markets that caused the California energy crisis of 2001, and Cheney’s role in the cover-up.
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Folks,

In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I address the buzz du jour: the new forecast on oil supply and demand from the National Petroleum Council. They’re still not acknowledging reality, but they seem to be getting closer.
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Folks,

The IEA’s new report last week had some very stark warnings about the tight balance between oil supply and demand, and projected a possible shortfall of supply by 2010. The report generated a lot of buzz around the world so I felt like I had to comment on it. Here’s my take, for the Energy and Capital newsletter.
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