For my final Energy and Capital article of 2008, I rate my own predictions and analysis, both good and bad.
I’m sure you’re all as happy as I am to leave this year behind. Here’s hoping that 2009 is much better! Happy New Year, y’all!
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Catching up the blog with my Energy and Capital article from last week, which ran while I was away for Christmas. In it, I survey some of the reasons why I think oil is badly mispriced right now.
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For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review some recent data on the global recession, highlight the Guardian‘s recent interview with IEA’s Fatih Birol, consider some of the many energy projects being cancelled due to low oil and gas prices, and conclude that we’re setting ourselves up for a rebound in prices even more severe than I had previously thought.
Just a quick post here to share some things I have been reading today that really deserve a wider audience. If you are at all interested in the data on peak oil and the interpretations of knowledgeable and insightful commentators, you should take a look. The critiques of Monibot, Simmons, Hirsch (and I daresay, myself) of the recent IEA world oil outlook raise crucially important questions that I guarantee you will never see discussed on TV or the radio. We are still sleepwalking toward the precipice of peak oil, and our ignorance is still vast.
A rare good bit of journalism about the peak oil study and our immediate outlook for supply.
George Monbiot (“Britain’s leading green commentator” and a good journalist on peak oil who writes for The Guardian) interviews Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency.
George Monibot critiques the recent IEA report
Matt Simmons & Robert Hirsch interviewed Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour
(Audio) They discuss the big picture on peak oil and spend some time discussing the IEA and its outlook.
Daniel Lerch reviews progress by cities in the Relocalization Network
A cool idea
For my Energy and Capital article this week, I evaluate the EIA’s new oil outlook report, and conclude that there are at least five reasons why oil should go higher from here, unless we have very severe demand destruction in the developing world.
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I had the privilege of presenting my slide deck and lecture on the future of energy today to students and faculty of the University of California Nuclear Engineering Department and the Lawrence Berkeley Lab, which was simulcast to the University of Tokyo. Thanks to all the great technology they have available, my lecture was videotaped and has already been uploaded to the Web. You can watch it here: http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/Chris-Nelder-Video (The sound is rough at the beginning, but once I start the presentation it clears up, although it is a bit overmodulated.)
I’d like to thank Dr. Kai Vetter for and Department Chair Dr. Jasmina Vujic for inviting me to speak at their Fall Colloquium series, and making me welcome. It was an honor and a pleasure to speak to such a technically adept audience, and they were very nice to me despite my moderate and less-informed outlook on nuclear energy.
In my article for Energy and Capital this week, I take a look at peak oil as a “black swan” event, and find an excellent opportunity to go long oil in the disconnect between the conventional wisdom of the market and the reality of energy supply.
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