I am no longer writing regularly for anyone, as my full-time job has kept me quite busy. But this week I wrote up a huge (308 page) new report by geoscientist J. David Hughes for the Post Carbon Institute, which offers the most detailed and transparent data to date on U.S. tight oil and shale gas fields. Its conclusions are in sharp contrast to the EIA’s projection. Rather than seeing production from these fracking operations remaining large for decades into the future, as EIA does, Hughes’ analysis sees both tight oil and shale gas peaking before 2020, then declining at a far faster rate than EIA does.
This is important, careful work and should be examined closely. Remember, five months after Hughes’ analysis of the Monterey Shale was published in December 2013, EIA slashed its estimate for the Monterey by 95% (indeed, I believe Hughes’ report forced them to re-evaluate).
My article for Petroleum Economist is behind a paywall, although you can sign up for a free 7-day trial if you want to read it: Sceptics see the boom about to bust.
But there’s nothing like reading Hughes’ report for yourself, which is freely available on Post Carbon’s site: Drilling Deeper