You may recall the name of Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior expert to the Iranian national oil company, National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), who was featured in the film The End of Suburbia. (And if you haven’t seen it, you must!)
A man with decades of experience, Dr. Bakhtiari has been one of the few top names in the oil business to acknowledge the urgency and seriousness of peak oil, and speak fairly candidly about it.
This article, from yesterday’s Daily Reckoning investment newsletter, has a nice roundup of his views and adds some fresh material from the author’s personal correspondence with Dr. Bakhtiari.
What prompted me to blog it was that Dr. Bakhtiari proposed a framework to describe the post-peak scenario between now and 2020, in four phases. Now, I have put the challenge, to various discussion groups about energy, for anyone to come up with a realistic 20-year scenario. So far, there have been some admirable attempts, but nothing I would consider too seriously. I even tried to get it submitted as a standard question to all speakers at the upcoming ASPO conference, but that get much response. Perhaps it’s too daunting. The problem is, there are just too many variables, and their interaction is too unpredictable.
While simple, I think Dr. Bakhtiari’s T1 – T4 framework could be a useful foundation. Food for thought, anyway. (more…)