Folks,
In this week’s Energy and Capital article, I review some recent events in California’s quest for renewable energy and the fight against global warming.
In many ways, the rest of the country tends to follow California’s example, so this should be instructive to like-minded individuals everywhere.
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Check out this article on the impending demise of the Hummer, by the ever-opinionated and unapologetic hardcore leftist, Mark Morford of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s a fun read and might even signal a turning of the American sentiment toward their precious cars.
Folks,
In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I share some exciting findings from a geothermal conference I went to a few weeks ago. This is very cool technology and it’s as clean and green as it can be. Check it out.
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Folks,
In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I try to explain, once and for all, that gas prices aren’t high because of gouging by Big Oil, and why boycotts don’t help bring prices down. If you’ve ever received one of those email chain letters that told you not to buy gas on a certain day or from a certain company (like the one that went around again this week), then please forward this article to whomever sent it to you. It’s high time people started to understand the way this system really works.
–C
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Folks,
Here’s a very cool art project I came across, which uses visual art to demonstrate the volumes of stuff that Americans consume every day. It’s pretty stunning!
In the author’s words:
This new series looks at contemporary American culture through the austere lens of statistics. Each image portrays a specific quantity of something: fifteen million sheets of office paper (five minutes of paper use); 106,000 aluminum cans (thirty seconds of can consumption) and so on. My hope is that images representing these quantities might have a different effect than the raw numbers alone, such as we find daily in articles and books. Statistics can feel abstract and anesthetizing, making it difficult to connect with and make meaning of 3.6 million SUV sales in one year, for example, or 2.3 million Americans in prison, or 426,000 cell phones retired every day. This project visually examines these vast and bizarre measures of our society, in large intricately detailed prints assembled from thousands of smaller photographs.
Check it out!
Running the Numbers
An American Self-Portrait
By Chris Jordan
Folks,
This week I prepared a detailed report on the natural gas situation in the U.S. (and elsewhere), for Energy and Capital.
The full report (with lots of charts) is available as a PDF file here: Indigestion Over Gas. Or you can just read the short version below.
The implications are clear to me: We’re going to be seeing significantly higher prices for grid electricity and gas-fired heat.
–C
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Folks,
Here is my latest for Energy and Capital, about the results of a new study for the Pentagon which says that it is “imperative” for the Department of Defense to “fundamentally transform” everything they do, immediately, to deal with our dependence on oil.
Since the DoD is the largest energy consumer in the nation, I think this is a very significant development.
–C
2007-05-04
By Chris Nelder
That’s it . . . the Pentagon has officially smelled the coffee on peak oil.
They’re not talking efficiency improvements or pilot projects anymore. Oh no.
Now they’re singing a much more plaintive tune:
"We have to wake up. We are at the edge of a precipice and we have one foot over the edge. The only way to avoid going over is to move forward and move forward aggressively with initiatives to develop alternative fuels. Just cutting back won’t work," said Milton R. Copulos, president of the National Defense Council Foundation and an expert on the military’s energy needs.
Wow. That’s pretty straight shootin’ there, Tex.
According to a new study by defense consulting firm LMI, the dwindling availability of oil, plus its rising costs, makes the U.S. military’s operations "unsustainable in the long term."
The report’s emphasis appears to be centered on our dependence on unfriendly oil-producing nations, more than peak oil per se, but the prescription is the same.
They say that it is “imperative” for the Department of Defense to “fundamentally transform” everything they do, immediately. Not just weapons systems, not just base operations, not just the designs of war machines, but everything. Immediately.
For longtime readers of these pages, the alternatives suggested by the report will be familiar, including synthetic fuels (from coal and other sources), biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, and solar and wind power. Technologies and stocks that we love and watch closely.
The study, titled "Transforming the Way DoD Looks at Energy," was commissioned by the Pentagon’s Office of Force Transformation and Resources, an office established to help execute former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s ambition of transforming the U.S. military.
That office is a pretty rarified environment, for the military. This isn’t some jarhead operation. They do experimental "skunkworks" projects. They publish policy papers on "highly adaptive, self-synchronizing, dynamically reconfigurable demand and supply networks that anticipate and stimulate actions to enhance capability or mitigate support shortfalls." (Ohhh Kaaay?)
In short, they try to anticipate the challenges of the future.
And they are turning their attention to the security of their oil supply, for good reason.
For one thing, the sheer scale of the military’s dependence on oil is absolutely immense.
The Department of Defense is the largest single energy consumer in the country.
More than half of all the cargo moved by the military is just fuel. And of the material transported on the battlefield? Fuel accounts for about 80 percent. That’s a lot of effort just to move fuel around.
The cost is another major factor. The Air Force alone spends about $5 billion a year on fuel, followed closely by the Navy and Army.
The military’s energy costs have doubled since 9/11. Costs are going up so fast and so high that they’re worried about being able to afford weapons.
And the cost of having the U.S. military protect the oil supplies of the Persian Gulf . . . yes, even protecting the ones who want to blow us up . . . is around $44 billion per year.
That’s just the security cost, folks.
We import about 800 million barrels per year of black gold from the Persian Gulf. Divided into $44 billion, that works out to slightly less than $55 a barrel. When oil is trading on the open market for around $65!
If those protection costs weren’t externalized onto the U.S. military (your tax dollars at work!) but priced into the world market, I reckon that would put oil at around $120 a barrel.
Does anybody still think renewable energy is too expensive compared to oil?
I shouldn’t need to tell you that if a tiny fraction of that money were spent on R&D for clean, renewable energy sources, it would take us a long way toward advancing those technologies and making them economical and scalable.
And indeed, a fraction of it is being spent on those things. As we reported recently, the Air Force is installing the largest solar plant in the country. All four branches of the military have already begun to explore greater efficiency and renewable energy.
And the Department of Defense’s other hand, the Department of Energy, has offered over half a billion dollars in co-investment for biofuel refineries.
But there is another factor that’s probably the most worrisome of all. Rumsfeld’s push to reduce the military’s footprint by closing far-flung bases and transforming it into a network of small, agile task forces has had an unfortunate consequence: everything now has to travel greater and greater distances.
Which means a growing, not declining, thirst for liquid fuels.
"The U.S. military will have to be even more energy intense, locate in more regions of the world, employ new technologies, and manage a more complex logistics system," according to the report. "Simply put, more miles will be traveled, both by combat units and the supply units that sustain them, which will result in increased energy consumption."
Combined with nonstop advances in war machines, this trend has led to a sixteen-fold increase in the amount of fuel consumed per soldier per day since WWII.
And according to the report, the trend has been sharpening: In 2006, the fuel intensity per solider was double that of the previous year!
No wonder the report pulled no punches in its recommendations. This is a serious and urgent situation.
The authors admit that the changes won’t be easy, and would "challenge some of the department’s most deeply held assumptions, interests, and processes."
But the U.S. military has no choice but to learn to love being green.
A few weeks ago, the Pentagon’s message was echoed by President Reagan’s national security adviser, Robert McFarlane, who is one among the growing ranks of security "green hawks." He is deeply concerned about the eventuality of a successful attack on Saudi oil facilities–such as the one foiled by Saudi security just last week.
One such attack could triple the cost of a barrel of oil overnight, he warned.
Like us, McFarlane believes that renewable energy technologies such as cellulosic ethanol and solar energy could offset a substantial amount of oil consumption in a relatively short period of time.
"The solution is within our reach. We have to get busy," he admonished.
Sixty-odd years ago, America responded to Hilter’s threat with an unprecedented mobilization of manufacturing muscle and good ol’ American ingenuity, creating a powerful war machine in short order and winning the war. Those young men and women earned their reputation as the "Greatest Generation."
Now American business has another great security challenge at its feet: Can they find a way forward for the lumbering U.S. war machine?
Can we be the next "Greatest Generation" by greening not just our military, but our entire infrastructure?
The similarity of WWII to the present-day twin challenges of energy supplies and global warming has also apparently occurred to Prince Charles, who said this week: "We can do it, just think what they did in the last war. Things that seemed impossible were achieved almost overnight."
Our ability to exploit advanced and alternative energy technologies, and to do more with less, is what will make it or break it now for the Land of the Free.
The very security of our country depends on it.
Until next time,
Chris
Folks,
Here’s something interesting: an hour-long debate between Steve Forbes and Boone Pickens about peak oil, from the April 24 Milken Institute Global Conference. (For more on this notable event, see “Observations on a Hotel Full of Billionaires”.)
Those are two of the richest guys in the world, so their opinions bear some weight. As longtime readers of GRL know, I’m squarely in Boone’s camp…although I think he has an overly optimistic view of the future of natural gas, given that North American production is past the peak, there is a lot of resistance to siting new LNG import facilities, and the global peak of gas should be right around 2011.
Watch the interview here or download the transcript here.
–C
This is interesting – a new online reality game designed to simulate the impending oil crisis. See the article below and give it a whirl.
Source: http://www.dailydemocrat.com/news/ci_5727769
A San Jose designer is trying to solve a crisis
before it can happen.
By RANDY MYERS/MediaNews staff
Article Created: 04/22/2007 09:09:44 AM
PDT
In a matter of days, gas prices will skyrocket, a dwindling food supply will
rot, and the oil crisis will literally stop Americans in their tracks.
How can you and your loved ones survive a crippling breakdown?
Log in to “World Without Oil,” a free alternate reality game that taps our
collective ingenuity to stop a plausible crisis before it happens. Or at least
prepare a post-Katrina nation to deal better with a disaster.
Sprung from the imagination of San Jose gamemaker Ken Eklund, the 30-day
Internet game begins April 30 at http://www.worldwithoutoil.org.
“Oil’s” creators herald the venture as a first – an alternate reality game
that wrestles with a significant social problem. Another topical game, the
obesity-themed “Fatworld,” is in production.
“This is the alternate reality game that will change reality,” Eklund said.
“People are realizing that (an alternate reality game) is not only a viable
way to teach and entertain people, in many ways it’s better than booklearning.”
Players enter the game by e-mail, phone calls and creating real or imagined
personas on MySpace. What they say will shape the game.
Organizers hope more tech-literate players will blog, make YouTube videos and
post audio clips and photos.
Most difficult for organizers will be harnessing the collective brainpower so
it doesn’t explode into chaos.
To provide cohesion, eight characters will be gamemasters for the virtual
crisis. Players drop in at any time to offer their thoughts about dealing with
issues they might encounter, from soaring prices to trying to commute.
“We’re asking people to come and write the story and that’s mainly because
the subject is too big for any small group of people,” Eklund said.
“The No. 1 challenge is that people’s imagination is so great,” Eklund said.
“We’re going to be running as fast we can to keep up with people. ”
When the game ends, its makers expect the postings will provide insight and
solutions to an oil crisis.
Expect growing demand for games like “Oil,” said Jane McGonigal, a Berkeley
futurist and game designer for the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto.
Beyond its social resonance, “Oil” illustrates what Web 2.0 is all about,
said McGonigal, an “Oil” collaborator. She appeared this week at a Web 2.0
conference in San Francisco. (Web 2.0 is the term used to describe the
internet’s much-debated next stage.)
“Web 2.0 is all about participatory culture,” she said. “Nobody’s just
receiving content, everything is collaborative including content and analysis.”
Web 2.0 draws it together, and so does “Oil.”
“Oil” players visit the website and plunge into a drama orchestrated by the
49-year-old Eklund.
“I was looking for an issue that affected everyone,” he said. Hurricane
Katrina and its devastating aftermath, which produced a surge in gasoline
prices, fueled “Oil.”
“Katrina definitely left me with the impression that in times of crisis you
need to have your own resources,” he said. “You can’t depend on a helicopter
swooping from the sky to save you. You better have a plan you can rely on . . .
Oil just fit the bill because it is the oxygen of our country.”
Focusing on game solutions, might equip Americans to deal with a real crisis,
he said. Eklund expects fresh insights to come from the large group of online
players.
The resulting game community will likely return to the real world to evaluate
and possibly cut consumption, he said. Regardless of outcomes, the game
sidesteps political posturing and fingerpointing. “Oil” was funded through a
Corporation of Public Boardcasting grant.
Educators wanting to keep pace with internet-age students have expressed
interest in using “Oil” in class.
“I can’t tell you how many educators and nonprofit organizers I’ve talked to
see this as the next generation’s type of curriculum,” McGongial said.
The game’s topic and interactive nature sold Jeff Towey at Richmond’s Making
Waves. He plans to have his afterschool students patricpate. He is particularly
intrigued by how reality games can cover academic subjects, from science to
English.
“It’s not straightforward like writing an essay,” he said.
“Oil” isn’t the first game to tackle social issues.
The nascent movement for serious-minded games includes MTV posting at
darfurisdying.com a Darfur game created by college students and the
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict’s “A Force More Powerful,” an
activists’ how-to for non-aggression at http://www.afmpgame.com.
What distinguishes “Oil” is that it is an alternate reality game aimed at
benefitting the public, McGonigal said.
Can it achieve such a lofty goal? A UC-Berkeley professor of practical art
and new media hopes so.
“(Oil dependency) is an extremely serious matter, and I think it’s good to
engage with these questions,” said Greg Niemeyer.
“There’s an aspect to it that is a little hard to translate into a game. Some
of its seriousness might be obscured by the fact that we’re encountering it in a
game.”
“What we need to learn is what are our core social values and how to find a
balance without an abundance of resources? That’s a huge question. If this game
will bring us to that it could be very successful. If it doesn’t it’s too bad.”
| Where to play • To check out “World Without Oil,” visit http://www.worldwithoutoil.org. • “World Without Oil” is a joint project of PBS’s Independent Lens and
• To learn more about alternate reality gaming, visit the Alternate • To read what gamers think of the idea, go to http://forums.unfiction.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=18592.
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