Market Meltdown Musings

September 29, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Contributed by: Chris

Just a few quick observations tonight, after the worst point loss in Dow history.

First, I gotta point you to my new hero, Rick Santelli, who is for my money the straight-talkin’est man on the Street. His take on the bailout failure today was typically clear-headed: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=872162980&play=1  His segment starts around 5:50 in. Santelli for prez!

Second, I should explain why I posted John Mauldin’s essay yesterday.  As long as we are working with conventional rules of the game and inside-the-box thinking, then I think his assessment was correct.

But for whatever reason, the voters rejected it about 30-to-1 and made their displeasure known loudly to their Congressmen, who caved to the pressure.

To be clear, I think the bailout proposal submitted was bad, and that the voters were right to reject it. It would have done nothing for the little guy and would have amounted to a huge bailout for the banks and their out-of-control leadership. This truly is a situation that calls for outside-the-box, unconventional thinking and conservative solutions, but those are complex issues beyond the ken of most laymen (and Congressmen) and I honestly didn’t think that the wishes of the masters of Wall Street could be overridden.  So it was a mixed, but pleasant suprise to see the proposal fail.

But that means we are now faced with the prospect of having to “go back to the drawing board,” as McCain put it today, and it will take days or weeks more to come up with an alternative proposal. We may not have that kind of time before another mega-meltdown on the Street. Due to the Jewish New Year holiday, no major votes are expected until Thursday. The next two days could feel like an eternity for investors.

I continue to advise that people remain in cash. Don’t buy anything, unless it’s a small short side position or gold. Unless you’re willing to ride out another wicked down-leg or three, selling might be the prudent course of action, even with many stocks dragging the bottom already. Because while they’re still changing the rules in the middle of the game, the safe move is not to play at all.

These are extremely dangerous times in the markets, and although many voters had the good sense to reject this bailout plan, I doubt that many of them understand the risk they took in doing so. We could have a long way to fall yet, and few appreciate how the pain on Wall Street can quickly trickle down to Main Street. Bailing out the “fat cats” may have been the wise choice after all, but we have turned our back on that option. I can only wonder what will happen next.

Good luck everybody–and keep yer fool head down.

Sign of the times

September 28, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Contributed by: Chris

Who’s Afraid of a Big, Bad Bailout?

September 28, 2008 at 10:27 am
Contributed by: Chris

Folks, amid the endless stream of commentary about the market meltdown and the impending $700 billion bailout of toxic mortgage debt, I thought this article from respected investor John Mauldin really hit the nail on the head, so I decided to repost it.

Whatever happens in Congress by tonight will have far-reaching consequences, and tomorrow (Monday) should be a most interesting day in the market.

Good luck out there…keep yer powder dry.
–C
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Reflections on the 2008 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference

September 24, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I offered some quick observations about the just-concluded ASPO-USA peak oil conference.

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The New, Improved GetRealList!

September 18, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Contributed by: Chris

I switched over to a new ISP today, and a new blog platform (WordPress, replacing the old GeekLog).  All of the old articles, and the look of the blog, have been retained, but the back end is totally different.

Among other things, GRL will no longer be sending out email updates directly. Many subscribers, particularly those with Yahoo email, stopped receiving email updates months ago because GRL was improperly “blacklisted” as a spammer. Even though all GRL subscribers opted-in to receive email, there is no easy way to dispute being improperly blacklisted by dozens of email systems, and it is next to impossible to get whitelisted again unless you are a large company with a large support staff to throw at the problem. For an individual like me, it’s basically hopeless.

As an alternative, readers can re-subscribe to receive GRL email updates via Feedburer on this new blog platform. Just enter your email address in the box in the upper left part of the page and hit the Subscribe button.

I hope you like the new, improved GRL! Please email me if you find anything amiss, at chris [at] getreallist [dot] com.

Surviving the Financial Tsunami

September 17, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Contributed by: Chris

In my article for Energy and Capital for the week of Sept 15, I take a good look at the worst carnage on Wall Street since the Great Depression, and conclude that sometimes just sitting it out is the best course of action. ..

–C
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Of Bailouts, Hedge Funds and Energy

September 10, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Contributed by: Chris

My Energy and Capital article for this week takes a closer look at the health of the US economy, taking the Fannie and Freddie bailout into account.

–C

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Rumors of the Demise of the Commodity Boom

September 10, 2008 at 7:05 pm
Contributed by: Chris

Here’s my article this week for Energy and Capital, discussing the huge selloff in commodities & energy after the Labor Day weekend.
–C

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Good reading

September 10, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Contributed by: Chris

I came across some good pieces today and thought it was about time I did a post to the blog just to pass some things along…so here you go.

–C

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