I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss the upheaval in the Mideast; Saudi Arabia’s ability to offset lost oil production from Libya; the decline of global oil exports; the ongoing problem of energy illiteracy in America; how the Fed and US policymakers are mired in denial and have backed themselves into a corner on food and energy; how 2011 is shaping up as a replay of 2008; the structural change in the global oil markets and oil prices; “American exceptionalism”; and the importance of hedging your investments against rising oil prices and a falling dollar.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss a new report from Shell outlining two approaches to the unfolding peak oil crisis: a “Scramble” scenario and a “Blueprints” scenario. We also talked about the Wikileaks ‘revelations’ about Saudi oil reserves; ExxonMobil’s admission that it’s having trouble replacing its reserves; the challenges of energy transition; the abysmal predictive record of CERA; and the general progress of the oil industry, elected officials, and the public in coming to grips with our energy reality, as it appears we have entered what I call a “confession” phase.
My segment (24 mins) is first.
Recommended related reading:
The Coming Misery that Big Oil Discusses Behind Closed Doors – Steve LeVine, Foreign Policy
The IEA’s Come-to-Jesus Moment – My commentary on IEA’s modeling from July 2007
I appeared on the Financial Sense program with Jim Pupalava today, to discuss my “narrow ledge” outlook for oil prices in 2011; my vision for the next five years; the global balance of the oil market between the OECD and Asia; and my new thesis that we have entered what I am calling The Great Contraction. We also discussed the current perspective of OPEC; the projections of the IEA and EIA; the outlook for future oil supply; the final report from the federal oil spill commission; and the inevitable call for clamping down on oil speculators (which the CFTC did today – that didn’t take long!).
You can download the show (19 minutes) here:
I appeared on BBC News yesterday (via Skype video chat) for a quick “hit” about the lawsuit filed by the US Government against BP and other companies involved in the Macondo well blowout, seeking unlimited damages against the companies.
Here’s the video (if you can’t see it, click here):
BBC News sought my comment on the suit after reading my previous articles on the Macondo (Deepwater Horizon) oil spill disaster:
Last October, at the 2009 ASPO peak oil conference, I was hanging out with a posse of fellow energy analysts and investors at the bar late in the evening. The conference organizer came by with a video camera and asked each of us to pretend it was late 2010, and offer our observations on the year. Here was mine–all in all, not bad!
I’m particularly pleased that I nailed the price band for oil, predicting that it would remain in the $70-90 range. Here’s the proof:
I offered some additional predictions for 2010 and beyond in these two articles, written in December 2009:
I appeared on the Financial Sense program with Jim Pupalava today, to discuss the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010 report in which they said that conventional oil actually peaked in 2006, but that unconventional liquids would continue to grow, along with supply from undiscovered fields. In this interview, I attempted to explain how the IEA develops their forecasts, and how to read between the lines.
You can download the show (14 minutes) here:
I don’t often blog about other people’s work, but in this case I must make an exception. For my money, there is no one in the world more expert on the subject of peak oil than Dr. Colin Campbell, a petroleum geologist who worked with Oxford University, Texaco, British Petroleum, Amoco, Shenandoah Oil, Norsk Hydro, Total Fina, and the Bulgarian and Swedish governments. He is the author of two books and more than 150 papers, and was the founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO).
A paper Dr. Campbell authored with petroleum analyst Jean H. Laherrère in the March 1998 issue of Scientific American, “The End of Cheap Oil,” has been widely credited with launching the subject of peak oil into global awareness.
In my early years of studying peak oil, I devoured Dr. Campbell’s work, as he was one of the very few analysts who did detailed work on oil data, and never failed to explain his sources and his reasoning. From 2001 to 2009, he published a monthly newsletter with his continually updated model of world oil and gas supply, in-depth profiles of oil and gas producing countries, energy-related news items, wry observations on the state of the world and the peak oil story, and just a dash of dry British wit. I anticipated those newsletters with the eagerness of a child looking forward to Christmas, and read every word of every issue. (Those of you who have followed my blog since 2001 will recall that I frequently linked to those newsletters.) All 100 issues of it are now archived at ASPO Germany.
The extent to which I have stood on Dr. Campbell’s shoulders in my peak oil work cannot be overstated, and it has been my great privilege to correspond with him from time to time. (He also reviewed my book Profit from the Peak, and gave it a very generous endorsement.)
Campbell’s pithy description of the peak oil problem is one that anyone can understand: “As any beer drinker knows, the glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it’s gone.”
Dr. Campbell is now retired, although he still writes occasionally on peak oil. Most recently he published a paper for The Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD) entitled “The Post-Peak World” (Oct. 28, 2010), which I wish every economist and policymaker in the world would read.
It was my pleasure to connect him with the good folks at Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour recently, and Jim’s podcast interview with him was published today. I can’t recommend it highly enough. You can listen to it here:
His audience is interested in understanding the important issues of the future, so we discussed the meaning and import of peak oil, the relationship of energy to food supply, the future of the airline and transportation industries, the inevitability of relocalization, the role of the military in energy transition, investing strategies, and how to prepare oneself to be resilient in an increasingly challenging future.
This audio interview is in three parts, below the fold.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss the tightening forecasts for peak oil; why drilling new, smaller fields can’t keep up with the depletion of the mature, giant fields; why the US leadership refuses to acknowledge the peak oil problem; and why investors seem to have turned their backs on oil and gas this year.
You can download the show (16 minutes) here:
I had the great pleasure of taping a video interview with my friend Paul Denlinger last week, which is now hosted at StockTwits.tv. Paul is a truly international guy, who has spent his life in the US, the UK, and China, and I met him on Twitter (@pdenlinger). A trenchant observer of global politics and a student of peak oil, Paul offered some excellent insights on the relationship of the US and China, including currency issues, our collision course on energy, China’s massive infrastructure building programs, China’s aging population problem, the rare earth metals sector, and other subjects.
As always, I am grateful to StockTwits for their continued support of my work, and helping me to get video published!
Watch the video below the fold.
Jim Puplava featured Robert Hirsch for a long, in-depth interview on his Financial Sense program last weekend, which I recommend to the attention of anyone interested in peak oil. It covered a full range of the topic’s complexity, including data on reserves, production, discovery and demand; economic implications; the reasons why the US Government has maintained silence on the issue while other developed economies are grappling with it; and the likely responses to the crisis as it unfolds over the next couple of years–including rationing, priority allocation, and interruption of food supplies. You won’t find a better or more expert testimony anywhere. Listen to it here:
Hirsch is the co-author of a new book on peak oil, designed for an educated layman audience, entitled The Impending World Energy Mess. He is a Senior Energy Advisor at MISI and a consultant in energy, technology, and management. His primary experience is in research, development, and commercial applications. He has managed technology programs in oil and natural gas exploration and production, petroleum refining, synthetic fuels, fusion, fission, renewables, defense technologies, chemical analysis, and basic research.
I don’t normally blog news stories, but this one struck me as important enough to mention.
Robert Hirsch, the principal author of the famous “Hirsch Report” from 2005 (“Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management“) has a new book out with his co-authors of that report, titled
The Impending World Energy Mess: What It Is and What It Means to You
In this new interview with Le Monde, Hirsch explains that U.S. government officials are fully aware of peak oil and the risks it carries, but has deliberately quashed discussion about it and directed people within the Department of Energy not to speak about it. And he is in a position to know.
Le Monde: Interview with Robert L. Hirsch
Part 1: Peak Oil: Jimmy Carter’s Secretary of Energy sounds the alarm
Part 2: Peak oil : “A conspiracy to keep it quiet” in Washington, says Robert Hirsch
See also the recent interview of Hirsch by Steve Andrews, for ASPO-USA.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program today, to discuss several new forecasts of peak oil (meaning all liquids) in the 2015-2020 time frame, including a leaked German military study on peak oil recently reported in Der Spiegel, an interview with Robert Hirsch, comments by veteran oil analyst Charlie Maxwell, a repeated warning from the IEA‘s executive director Nobuo Tanaka that “the age of cheap energy is over,” and an editorial by energy analyst Anas Alhajji on the inability of OPEC to meet growing world oil demand. I wrapped up the interview by revisiting my March 2010 article, “‘Peak Demand,’ Yes, But Not The Nice Kind.”
You can download the show (1 hour) here:
My segment begins at 38:41
I had the great pleasure of videotaping a long conversation with KrisCan in mid-July, which is now online in seven parts. Topics included the Deepwater Horizon spill, the implications for U.S. oil production, my critique of various energy policies, and the challenges of energy transition. (more…)
I have been engaged in some non-energy related projects of late, so I haven’t been writing. But I realized that I have been remiss in not alerting my readers to a Peak Oil Reference section that I authored recently for ASPO-USA. Despite the volumes of material that have been written on peak oil, there still did not exist (to the best of my knowledge, anyway) a single online reference that presents this very complex topic in a form that’s both accessible to newbies, and that links to the deeper data and theory. So I built one, on contract with ASPO-USA, based on some of their existing material and my old “Peak Oil Media Guide” from 2008.
It’s still a fairly skeletal first draft, comprising only 16 web pages, but hopefully it will grow, and serve as a useful guide to the public, the media, and others. It is located here:
I invite feedback and suggestions for future revisions.
Yesterday I had another web video chat with StockTwits founder Howard Lindzon on the future of energy and its implications for global population, plus related subjects. View the video (32 minutes) below the fold.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program today to discuss the shifting of oil supply and demand to the developing world and the diminishing influence of the international oil companies; the “energy suicide” of shutting down offshore oil drilling; the long-term production losses due to deepwater drilling rigs leaving the Gulf of Mexico; the slim hopes of new production from tar sands, Saudi Arabia and Iraq; and the urgent need to begin energy transition.
You can download the show (1 hour) here:
My segment begins at 47:04.
Energy analyst Chris Nelder sees a chance to get energy policy right in the death of the cap and trade bill. It’s time to put carbon legislation aside and focus on energy transition.
I had a fun, freewheeling chat with my friend and fellow energy analyst Gregor Macdonald yesterday, which was broadcast today on the Abnormal Returns show on Stocktwits.tv. Gregor and I chat about energy frequently and thought it would be good to share one of our conversations with the public. In this episode, we talk about some of the implications and larger issues around the BP oil spill. (And yes, it was my idea to open with a music bed of “Only The Beginning.”) Video below the fold.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program today to discuss why officials, the media, and the oil industry have been so lagging in their responses to peak oil; the deep institutional and cultural denial about the implications of peak oil on economics; and the need to reinvent our economic theory and cultural ideals.
For background material on this discussion, see my recent articles:
You can download the show (1 hour) here:
My segment is at the top of the program.