I made a short guest appearance on France 24 television last night, to talk about the Exxon joint venture deal with Rosneft to explore the Russian Arctic for oil and gas. Here’s the clip, along with some notes on the deal and my perspective.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Puplava program today, in a segment they titled ”2012 Energy Crisis Now Looking Likely.” We discussed the futility of releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and why our government officials and business leaders are failing to come to grips with the loss of spare oil production capacity and consequent oil price spikes that should develop in 2012, followed by the long-term decline in global oil production. (I did not actually predict oil over $150 a barrel, as they indicated on their site, but I do think we’ll hit a maximum pain tolerance point that will kill demand in the OECD, and that price point will likely be lower than the $147 peak we saw in 2008.) My long-term thesis for this century is that fossil fuel supply will decline to almost nothing over the next 90 years, resulting in what I’m calling The Great Contraction–a century of economic shrinkage, and a long process of relocalization (the reversal of globalization). But our leaders are utterly failing to plan for it. I concluded that “there is no intelligent life here.” But on the bright side, solar installations are setting new records in California.
See also: Seven Paths to our Energy Future
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Puplava program this week, to discuss the latest data on oil supply and demand; the question of whether Saudi Arabia tried to make up for Libyan production or not; the state of the US economy and our pain tolerance limits on gasoline prices; the volatility of oil prices and the role of speculators; Japan’s cancellation of its plans for new nuclear power plants; the outlook for renewables; China’s economic growth and the shifting of global oil demand from West to East; and the data on production from Brazil’s Tupi field. Simply: world commodity markets are tight and we are seeing the fireworks that should be expected in that situation.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss the implications of high oil prices; OPEC’s ability to compensate for lost production from Libya; how Japan will replace lost power generation from the Fukushima nuclear plant; and the outlook for future energy choices.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss the upheaval in the Mideast; Saudi Arabia’s ability to offset lost oil production from Libya; the decline of global oil exports; the ongoing problem of energy illiteracy in America; how the Fed and US policymakers are mired in denial and have backed themselves into a corner on food and energy; how 2011 is shaping up as a replay of 2008; the structural change in the global oil markets and oil prices; “American exceptionalism”; and the importance of hedging your investments against rising oil prices and a falling dollar.
I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss a new report from Shell outlining two approaches to the unfolding peak oil crisis: a “Scramble” scenario and a “Blueprints” scenario. We also talked about the Wikileaks ‘revelations’ about Saudi oil reserves; ExxonMobil’s admission that it’s having trouble replacing its reserves; the challenges of energy transition; the abysmal predictive record of CERA; and the general progress of the oil industry, elected officials, and the public in coming to grips with our energy reality, as it appears we have entered what I call a “confession” phase.
My segment (24 mins) is first.
Recommended related reading:
The Coming Misery that Big Oil Discusses Behind Closed Doors – Steve LeVine, Foreign Policy
The IEA’s Come-to-Jesus Moment – My commentary on IEA’s modeling from July 2007
Last night I made a guest appearance (by telephone) on Dr. Phil Pearlman’s “Market Shrinkology” show on Stocktwits.tv. He featured my 2010 prediction and we discussed my macro outlook, my “Great Contraction” thesis, oil prices, and other subjects. My thanks to Phil for giving a platform to my outlier views!
Watch it here: Market Shrinkology – January 18, 2011
I appeared on the Financial Sense program with Jim Pupalava today, to discuss my “narrow ledge” outlook for oil prices in 2011; my vision for the next five years; the global balance of the oil market between the OECD and Asia; and my new thesis that we have entered what I am calling The Great Contraction. We also discussed the current perspective of OPEC; the projections of the IEA and EIA; the outlook for future oil supply; the final report from the federal oil spill commission; and the inevitable call for clamping down on oil speculators (which the CFTC did today – that didn’t take long!).
You can download the show (19 minutes) here:
I appeared on BBC News yesterday (via Skype video chat) for a quick “hit” about the lawsuit filed by the US Government against BP and other companies involved in the Macondo well blowout, seeking unlimited damages against the companies.
Here’s the video (if you can’t see it, click here):
BBC News sought my comment on the suit after reading my previous articles on the Macondo (Deepwater Horizon) oil spill disaster:
His audience is interested in understanding the important issues of the future, so we discussed the meaning and import of peak oil, the relationship of energy to food supply, the future of the airline and transportation industries, the inevitability of relocalization, the role of the military in energy transition, investing strategies, and how to prepare oneself to be resilient in an increasingly challenging future.
This audio interview is in three parts, below the fold.