Time to Take the Long View on Energy

January 14, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital column this week, I take a 100-year view on energy and wonder if the Obama infrastructure plan will guide us down the right path, or down the road to ruin…
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When Bad News is Good News

January 7, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital column this week, I take a look at the huge gains posted across the commodity sector in the last six weeks, and decide that the time is right to begin accumulating those positions again. The market as a whole may trade sideways or even sink further over 2009, but I think the time is right to buy energy, metals, and fertilizers.
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My 2008 Year in Review

December 31, 2008 at 11:59 am
Contributed by: Chris

For my final Energy and Capital article of 2008, I rate my own predictions and analysis, both good and bad.

I’m sure you’re all as happy as I am to leave this year behind. Here’s hoping that 2009 is much better! Happy New Year, y’all!
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Oil Prices Are Wrong–Very Wrong

December 31, 2008 at 11:52 am
Contributed by: Chris

Catching up the blog with my Energy and Capital article from last week, which ran while I was away for Christmas. In it, I survey some of the reasons why I think oil is badly mispriced right now.
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OPEC Defends Oil Prices

December 17, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review some recent data on the global recession, highlight the Guardian‘s recent interview with IEA’s Fatih Birol, consider some of the many energy projects being cancelled due to low oil and gas prices, and conclude that we’re setting ourselves up for a rebound in prices even more severe than I had previously thought.

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Current readings on peak oil and energy

December 15, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Contributed by: Chris

Just a quick post here to share some things I have been reading today that really deserve a wider audience. If you are at all interested in the data on peak oil and the interpretations of knowledgeable and insightful commentators, you should take a look. The critiques of Monibot, Simmons, Hirsch (and I daresay, myself) of the recent IEA world oil outlook raise crucially important questions that I guarantee you will never see discussed on TV or the radio. We are still sleepwalking toward the precipice of peak oil, and our ignorance is still vast.

‘Peak Oil Theory’ Demands Energy Alternatives

A rare good bit of journalism about the peak oil study and our immediate outlook for supply.

When will the oil run out?

George Monbiot (“Britain’s leading green commentator” and a good journalist on peak oil who writes for The Guardian) interviews Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency.

Must-watch video of Monibot interviewing Birol

Global oil supply will peak in 2020, says energy agency

George Monibot critiques the recent IEA report

Matt Simmons & Robert Hirsch interviewed Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour

(Audio) They discuss the big picture on peak oil and spend some time discussing the IEA and its outlook.

Post Carbon Cities

Daniel Lerch reviews progress by cities in the Relocalization Network

Japan tests “Power Generation Floor”

A cool idea

Five Reasons Why Oil Must Go Higher

December 10, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I evaluate the EIA’s new oil outlook report, and conclude that there are at least five reasons why oil should go higher from here, unless we have very severe demand destruction in the developing world.
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Video: Presentation to the UC Berkeley Nuclear Engineering Dept.

December 8, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Contributed by: Chris

I had the privilege of presenting my slide deck and lecture on the future of energy today to students and faculty of the University of California Nuclear Engineering Department and the Lawrence Berkeley Lab, which was simulcast to the University of Tokyo. Thanks to all the great technology they have available, my lecture was videotaped and has already been uploaded to the Web. You can watch it here: http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/Chris-Nelder-Video (The sound is rough at the beginning, but once I start the presentation it clears up, although it is a bit overmodulated.)

I’d like to thank Dr. Kai Vetter for and Department Chair Dr. Jasmina Vujic for inviting me to speak at their Fall Colloquium series, and making me welcome. It was an honor and a pleasure to speak to such a technically adept audience, and they were very nice to me despite my moderate and less-informed outlook on nuclear energy.

Black Swans, Peak Oil, and the Looming Energy Crisis

December 3, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Contributed by: Chris

In my article for Energy and Capital this week, I take a look at peak oil as a “black swan” event, and find an excellent opportunity to go long oil in the disconnect between the conventional wisdom of the market and the reality of energy supply.
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Chris Nelder in the Media

November 30, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Contributed by: Chris

This page has been moved to http://www.getreallist.com/media

Why Low Oil Prices Are Bad

November 26, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review a host of cancellations and delays of energy projects, and surmise that they are setting us up for an “air pocket” of oil supply within the next year or so.

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The Big Three Stick-Up

November 19, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Contributed by: Chris

In this week’s column for Energy and Capital, I argue that instead of stepping backward to bail out the automakers, we should step forward to the next generation of auto makers.
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IEA Oil Report: “Time is Running Out”

November 13, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Contributed by: Chris

In my column for Energy and Capital this week, I tackle the new World Energy Outlook 2008 report from the IEA. It’s the bombshell I expected, and poses a $26 trillion dollar question with a (mostly) renewable energy answer.

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Excellent article: “Wall Street Lays Another Egg”

November 7, 2008 at 11:34 am
Contributed by: Chris

This month’s Vanity Fair has an excellent article on the market meltdown this year, which explains the history and the roles played by Fannie and Freddie, the Fed, hedge funds, and banks, and delves into the nature of fiat money, derivatives, and the other financial instruments that were the tools of our undoing. Fascinating article, very well done, highly recommended!

Wall Street Lays Another Egg

“Either way, Planet Finance has now returned to Planet Earth with a bang. The key figures of the Age of Leverage—the lax central bankers, the reckless investment bankers, the hubristic quants—are now feeling the full force of this planet’s gravity.”

Obama Win Means A New Bull Market for Energy

November 6, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review Obama’s energy plan and try to separate the good ideas from the bad ones, ultimately finding in Obama’s win a guaranteed bull market in renewable energy, grid technology, and plug-in hybrids.

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A day to celebrate!

November 5, 2008 at 9:15 am
Contributed by: Chris

At long last, the seemingly endless national nightmare of the Bush administration is over, and a Democratic liberal has taken the reins. I still can hardly believe it’s true. I wept with relief and joy as I watched his acceptance speech last night. I can’t remember ever being so moved by anything political in my entire life.

Long live President Obama! I wish him luck–he’s got a very tough row to hoe. He’s going to need all the support he can get from Congress to tackle the challenges of the next four years, and he’s going to need the entire country’s help to take out the wedges that Karl Rove and his operatives drove between us, and heal the divides within. My new article, to be published tomorrow, will take a close look at his energy policy proposals, so stay tuned for that. For now I’ll just say: WAHOO!!

Below the fold, a banner and YouTube video submitted by friends, in recogntion of this historic moment.

What an amazing, blessed relief. After eight years of utter shame, I am once again proud to be an American.

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Weekend reading: money and markets

November 1, 2008 at 11:26 am
Contributed by: Chris

My presentation in Minneapolis was very well received. I sense a growing appreciation out there for messages about resource overshoot and a future of diminishing energy supplies, and it’s giving me just a tiny bit of optimism.

Here’s a short article that I had to recommend to my list on the future of the markets and how we must be prepared to see both wild deflationary and hyperinflationary cycles. Excellent stuff.
Is Volatility Embedded in the System for a Generation?

On a related note, check out this chart of money supply. If you really grok what this means, it sorta tells the whole story right there:


Source: http://www.shadowstats.com/

 

Here’s another excellent article on the future of global trade and commodity prices: The world isn’t flat, it’s flattened

And finally, a bit of up-to-date political humor: Wassup 2008

Here’s hoping that we can wake up on November 5 to a new day in America, after a clean and uncontested election, with Obama at the helm. We have a lot of work to do…
–C

Oil and the U.S. Dollar

October 30, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Contributed by: Chris

I’m in Minneapolis today to speak to the American Association of Individual Investors about the future of energy and investing–basically a redux of my book Profit from the Peak. I hope the good people of the Twin Cities are ready to see 72 of the most frightening slides they’ve ever seen…(well, a few of them are optimistic!)

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I examine the relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar, the yen carry trade and the credit market, and conclude that we must be near a floor for oil prices.

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Highlights of the 2008 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference, Part 2

October 22, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Contributed by: Chris

Here is Part 2 of my highlights from the 2008 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference, for Energy and Capital.
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Highlights of the 2008 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference, Part 1

October 18, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Contributed by: Chris

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I wrote up some highlights from the recent peak oil conference.

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