Peter Kiernan, lead energy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, blogged my recent piece “Oil demand shift: Asia takes over” on his personal blog Petropolitics yesterday and added his own insights about the geopolitical implications: Oil demand sets in the West
For SmartPlanet this week, I explored data on oil demand, net oil exports, and fuel economy, and found that oil demand from the developing world will overtake demand from the world’s mature economies this year, and will never look back. The U.S. cannot win the race against Asia for vehicle efficiency. Read it here:
Oil demand shift: Asia takes over
Jeff Goodell has a couple of good recent pieces about shale gas in Rolling Stone. The first, an entertaining close-up of Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon and his company’s business model, appears to have drawn heavily from my recent pieces on shale gas, although without direct attribution. The second, out today, speaks to President Obama’s assertion that we have 100 years of shale gas, and does quote my piece in Slate. Goodell is a fun writer to read, and these are worth a look if you are interested in the subject.
Separately, it seems the unfavorable economics of shale gas production are finally hitting the street, as Russia’s Lukoil announced yesterday that it is pulling out of $1.8 billion shale gas deal in the U.S.
Postscript March 5, 2012: I should clarify that I do not agree with all of Goodell’s representations. I also note that Chesapeake has issued a rebuttal and that Art Berman has objected to some of Goodell’s statements about him.
I was interviewed for a recent article in Media Matters about the poor reportage on gasoline prices. Their energy reporter Jocelyn Fong had liked my article “Why energy journalism is so bad” and wanted to make sure she did her homework and got the story right. I think she did a great job. Read it here: What Reporters Are Getting Wrong About Gas Prices
For SmartPlanet this week I offered a model to demystify oil prices. The most important factor is one you’ve probably never heard of, while the ones you hear about aren’t that important. I also showed why unconventional oil from fracked shales will reinforce, not relieve, the pain of high oil prices. Read it here: A model of oil prices
For SmartPlanet this week, I took a close look at a new report from Citigroup claiming that shale oil production had “buried” the peak oil hypothesis and that the U.S. is on its way to energy independence this decade. Instead, I found that the story of energy independence is just that: a story. The data tells us that we are losing the race against depletion, oil shortages are in our near future, and we had better plan as individuals to confront the impending oil shocks. Read it here: Energy independence, or impending oil shocks?
For SmartPlanet this week, I explored some new academic research on the relationship between the EROI (energy return on energy invested) and ROI of fuels, and what it can tell us about price, profit, scalability, and the economy as a whole. Savvy investors should begin looking at the EROI of fuels as a guide. Read it here: What EROI tells us about ROI
One of my favorite writers on the geopolitics of energy is Steve LeVine, a highly accomplished journalist who writes a blog called The Oil and the Glory for Foreign Policy (see his bio here.) He liked my recent work on shale gas and offered me a guest post on his blog, which he edited. It’s a short, summary piece which he published today, so head over there and check it out if you’re so inclined: Is there really so much shale gas in the ground?
For SmartPlanet this week, I reviewed new data from petroleum geologist Arthur Berman showing that total U.S. gas production has plateaued for the past two years, in sharp contrast to the data offered by EIA. Production is actually declining in major shale gas plays because it has become unprofitable, and the outlook for future production is becoming more dubious. According to Berman, the shale gas gold rush is over. Read it here: Everything you know about shale gas is wrong
For SmartPlanet this week I reviewed a new article on peak oil published in the journal Nature by James Murray and David King, along with articles about it that followed, and tried to set the record straight about what “peak oil” means and why some in the press still get it wrong. Read it here: The politics of peak oil